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By Anthony Pilcher · December 24th, 2009 · 0 Comments · 88 views
2009 Elite Selection Playoff: Week Fourteen and BCS Championship Predictions

Disclaimer: The following is not intended for betting purposes.

Similar to last year, the final AV Ranking values (see the values in the table below) will be used to predict the BCS bowl game winners against the spread.

The BCS games are as follows:

  • Rose Bowl presented by Citi: Ohio State vs. Oregon
  • Tostitos Fiesta Bowl: Boise State vs. TCU
  • Allstate Sugar Bowl: Cincinnati

Miscellany, News, Statistics »

By Anthony Pilcher · November 30th, 2009 · 0 Comments · 38 views
2009 Elite Selection Playoff: Week Thirteen

If the ESP determined the National Championship Game participants, it would be all but a done deal. Unless Texas loses to Nebraska in the Big 12 Championship, they will face the winner of the SEC Championship game which pits Alabama and Florida for the second consecutive year.

TCU and Boise State have had great runs, but they are too far away in point differentials to…

Miscellany, News, Statistics »

By Anthony Pilcher · November 23rd, 2009 · 0 Comments · 34 views
2009 Elite Selection Playoff: Week Twelve

The national title picture is becoming more and more clear.

Unless something dramatically changes, it will be Texas against the winner of the SEC in the national championship game. The ESP has Alabama number one and Florida number two, while the BCS has the two teams in reverse order.

This disparity is largely due to the computer rankings used by the BCS and the computer…

Miscellany, News, Statistics »

By Anthony Pilcher · November 16th, 2009 · 0 Comments · 37 views
2009 Elite Selection Playoff: Week Eleven

There was quite a bit of shuffling at the top of the ESP this week (as always a comparison to the BCS is here). Florida dropped a spot after a rather unconvincing win over South Carolina while Alabama jumped two spots to take over at the top. Texas remained number two with TCU, Cincinnati, Boise State, Georgia Tech, Ohio State and Pittsburgh rounding out the…

Miscellany, News, Statistics »

By Anthony Pilcher · November 11th, 2009 · 0 Comments · 53 views
2009 Elite Selection Playoff: Week Ten

Iowa’s loss to Northwestern dropped them out of the top five in the ESP while the other top teams largely remained the same. Florida or Alabama have to lose at least one game, but—with few exceptions—the remaining top five teams have favorable schedules for the remainder of the year. For comparison purposes the BCS results can be seen here.

Movement in the top 10 of…

Miscellany, News, Statistics »

By Anthony Pilcher · November 2nd, 2009 · 0 Comments · 32 views
2009 Elite Selection Playoff: Week Nine

There was a bit of shuffling at the top of the rankings this week. Florida remains atop the ESP but Texas jumped an idle Alabama squad with their win over Oklahoma State. There were some other teams in top 10 that shuffled around as well. Check out the latest BCS rankings for comparison purposes.

As most teams have played eight games, the AV Ranking nearly…

Miscellany, News, Statistics »

By Anthony Pilcher · October 25th, 2009 · 0 Comments · 91 views
2009 Elite Selection Playoff: Week Eight

Many of the top teams survived scares over the weekend, but that did little to impact their ranking. The week eight ESP and AV Ranking are shown below (week seven can be found here). It is still too early to draw many meaningful conclusions from the rankings.

Visit here to compare the ESP to the BCS standings.  Go here to compare the AV Ranking to…

Miscellany, News, Statistics »

By Anthony Pilcher · October 21st, 2009 · 0 Comments · 62 views
2009 Elite Selection Playoff: Week Seven

The BCS standings were released this week. In conjunction with this, Clashmore Mike has decided to release the first update of the Elite Selection Playoff. For AV Ranking comparison purposes, Sagarin’s ranking can be found here.

This does, however, come with a caveat.

In week seven virtually all rankings are meaningless. Much will change between now and the end of the season and publishing rankings…

Miscellany, Off-Season, Statistics »

By Anthony Pilcher · August 30th, 2009 · 0 Comments · 203 views
A Study in Prediction Performance: Updates to the AV Ranking

At Clashmore Mike we strive to monitor the college football landscape as a whole, objectively and without bias. While we have a vested interest in Notre Dame, we attempt to view the performance of the Irish via appropriate statistical metrics that benchmark on-field production (irrespective of how said production is measured).

One such example is the AV Ranking. Rather than rely on Jeff Sagarin, Anderson…

Miscellany, News, Statistics »

By Anthony Pilcher · December 9th, 2008 · 0 Comments · 387 views
2008 Elite Selection Playoff: Week Fifteen and BCS Championship Predictions

Disclaimer: The following is not intended for betting purposes.

The AV Ranking was two for three in conference championship picks from last week. It was much less accurate, however, predicting the odds of beating the spreads.

While the AV Ranking was able to successfully predict Oklahoma beating the 17 point spread in the Big 12 championship, it failed to predict Florida beating the spread in…